**Note: All stats are for conference games only.
On paper, Marquette’s game against South Florida on Sunday should be no
contest. Marquette is generally ranked among the Top 20 teams in the country and
has won five straight games against solid Big East competition, three of which
came on the opponent’s court.
South Florida is 2-5 in the conference, and the Bulls’ only two victories
have come against two of the poorer teams in the league, Cincinnati and Rutgers.
Furthermore, USF is ranked #166 on RPI (Kenpom.com), while MU is ranked #20.
Fortunately for Coach Robert McCullum and his staff, Big East games are not
played on paper but on the court, and the reality is that this game should be
considerably more competitive than many analysts might predict. With the
additions of transfers Kentrell Gransberry and Jesus Verdejo second semester, as
well as the recent return to health of point guard Chris Howard following two
serious knee injuries in two years, USF is a much more dangerous squad than the
one that started the year.
Gransberry, the Bulls’ 6’9”, 270 pound center is averaging 16.1 ppg
(8th in the conference) on 55.8% shooting (10th in the conference). He is also
pulling down 9.9 rpg (2nd in the conference), including a league-leading 4.4
offensive rebounds per game. In short, he’s a handful. He’s not quite as
huge as Aaron Gray of Pitt, but he’s more fluid and has a soft touch around
the hoop. Gransberry has recorded double-doubles in three of his last four games
(21 points and 15 rebounds against Cincinnati, 21 points and 11 rebounds against
Notre Dame, and 13 points and 13 rebounds against Rutgers). He barely missed
having four in a row (11 points and 9 rebounds against West Virginia). He will
not be an easy match-up for Barro because of his strength and skill level.
Another offensive weapon is 6’7” small forward Melvin Buckley, who is
averaging 13.9 ppg (15th) in seven conference games. He has been remarkably
consistent as he has scored in double figures in 19 of 21 games overall,
including 15 in a row. The transfer from Purdue is an excellent outside shooter
as his average of 44.7% on treys illustrates. He is second in the league in
three-pointers made per game (3.0). His free throw percentage - 87.5% - is
fourth in the league. Buckley is not much of a threat to drive as almost two
thirds of his shots (64.5%) come from behind the arc. The bottom line is that
Marquette can not allow him to get open looks from the perimeter. Fortunately,
MU has allowed conference opponents to make only 29.3% of its three pointers,
good for 3rd in the league.
The X factor for the Bulls could be power forward McHugh Mattis. The 6’8”
senior is exactly the type of player that is capable of giving Marquette’s
front line fits. He is extremely quick and an excellent jumper who uses his
athleticism to average 10.9 ppg (almost all of his points coming right around
the basket) and 6.0 rpg. It is difficult to imagine Fitzgerald being able to
keep Mattis off the offensive glass. Hayward, though certainly not a
stand-still, two-footed leaper, may have more success if he can keep a body on
Mattis and box him out. However, Mattis might cause Tom Crean’s squad more
problems with his shot blocking than with his rebounding as he is averaging 3.3
bpg. He had 5 blocks against UConn, 5 against Cincy, and 5 against West
Virginia. Still, MU’s guards must attack the hoop and force Mattis to make
plays. They have to hope that they can draw enough fouls on USF’s premier shot
blocker so that he either has to spend considerable time on the bench or become
a bit less aggressive.
The Bulls rotate three players, two of whom did not play a single minute
first semester, through the two guard spots. Chris Howard has taken over the
starting job at the point following his recovery from the more recent of two
serious knee injuries. The 6’3” sophomore is averaging 30.2 mpg in five
games. He’s not much of a scorer (5.6 ppg) or shooter (32.3% overall and 0 for
6 on three-pointers). However, he is averaging an impressive 5.6 apg (including
10 assists against Cincinnati) and has 28 assists to 14 turnovers for an
assist/turnover ratio of 2.0/1.0. He is supposedly extremely quick, so James and
Cubillan will have to stay in front of him to keep him from penetrating and
finding open teammates.
Freshman Solomon Bozeman was one of the early surprise stories in the
conference. Prior to conference play he averaged 14.0 ppg and scored in double
figures in 10 of 14 games with highs of 23 and 24 points. In seven league games,
however, he’s averaged only 5.1 ppg with a high game of 10 points. His shot
has deserted him lately as he’s hit only 28.6% from the field overall and
21.1% (4 of 19) on treys. He is, however, an excellent free throw shooter –
88.9% - good for second in the conference.
Arizona transfer Jesus Verdejo has been a part-time starter since becoming
eligible second semester. In 26.2 mpg in league play, he’s averaged 7.0 ppg on
45.2% shooting. He has a solid mid-range game, and he’s capable of getting to
the hoop where he can use his height – 6’4” – to score over shorter
defenders. He’s not much of a threat from deep, however, as he’s made only 5
of 17 treys (29.4%).
These six players have accounted for more than 90% of total playing time the
past five games. The Bulls are simply not very deep once they get past these six
individuals.
Overall, USF presents some problems. Gransberry can score inside and hit the
offensive boards. Mattis is quick and athletic and can cause havoc with his
shot-blocking ability. Buckley can shoot from behind the arc. Howard has a knack
for finding open teammates and delivering the ball. Verdejo and Bozeman are both
sufficiently athletic and skilled to cause some problems for MU’s defense.
The keys for MU to extend its winning streak are obvious. Marquette’s
interior defenders must keep Gransberry and Mattis off the offensive glass. On
the perimeter, the defense must not allow Buckley to get into a comfort zone,
and they must not let the Bulls’ guards penetrate and dish or kick it out to
open teammates.
USF has some definite weaknesses as a team. For the conference season, the
Bulls are 15th in scoring at 57.9 ppg, 15th in free throw percentage (58.7%),
16th in offensive rebounding (8.7 per game) despite Gransberry being first in
the league, 15th in three-pointers made per game (4.3), despite Buckley’s 3.0
per game.
If both teams play what is for them an average game, MU should win. But Coach
McCollum has a knack for getting his teams to play well at home. They lost a
number of close games last year on their home court before upsetting
Georgetown at the end of the season. If Marquette does not play hard and smart
on Sunday, MU could suffer the same fate.
Below are the P-5 (Potential Point Production & Prevention Profile)
rankings - for conference games only - for the two teams’ probable starters on
Sunday. The P-5 score is calculated by adding a player’s points, rebounds,
assists (times 2), steals, and blocks, then subtracting turnovers from that
sub-total. The new total is then divided by the number of minutes played.
Point Guard - Howard: 18.6/30.2 mpg = .616
Point Guard – James: 27.6/35.0 mpg = .789
Off Guard – Verdejo: 13.4/26.2 mpg = .511
Off Guard – McNeal: 28.9/30.5 mpg = .948
Small Forward – Buckley: 16.4/34.1 = .481
Small Forward – Matthews: 23.7/35.0 mpg = .677
Power Forward – Mattis: 21.3/32.0 mpg = .666
Power Forward – Fitzgerald: 9.0/20.9 mpg = .431
Center – Gransberry: 28.1/32.4 mpg = .867
Center – Barro: 19.3/31.0 mpg = .623
It is possible that Hayward could start at the 4 for MU and/or that Bozeman
could start at the 2 for USF. Their P-5 scores are:
Off Guard – Bozeman: 13.8/29.7 mpg = .465
Power Forward – Hayward: 7.6/14.0 mpg = .543
**Eric Silver, aka “Silver Warrior”, is a regular contributor at
MarquetteHoops.com and is also a contributing writer for CHN, College Hoops
Network.